23 Musings

This image from eMarketer shows just how sewn up the online ad world is by the big four...

When Google drops the branded terms rules on 5th May I reckon their revenue and share will leap as the cost of those terms in PPC rises!

Advertising can be so boring sometimes. It's far more engaging to create an advert that makes your prospective customers stop and stare while they try to figure out what it is you're trying to market to them. Then the moment of realisation kicks in when they figure out what your product or service is and that's when it gets stuck in their minds and advertising recall pays off.

Here's some great examples on these two pages (link 1 and link 2).

My favourite I think has to be this one advertising a casino in an airport:

Widgets are gaining some serious traction! U.S. companies have spent approx $15m on widget based campaigns in 2007 and that is projected to grow to $40m in 2008.

That spend reflects only 2.5% of the total amount that is projected to be spent on social network advertising in the next year. Now that's quite low, I believe this is because so many widget campaigns have been so poorly executed in the past year and corporates are having difficulty seeing the potential ROI in comparison to traditional banner advertising and more brand led efforts (such as sponsored pages and profiles).

I stick by my earlier prediction that 2008 will be the year of the widget; if portability, engagement and usefulness are all kept in mind then a widget campaign can serve both branding and conversion. For more on my thoughts on widgets see this post.

For more on widget spend visit eMarketer.

Sir Tim Berners-Lee has come out as against the planned Phorm advert and tracking network today (more here from the BBC).

It was announced a couple of weeks ago that leading ISP's were planning to use Phorm as a platform to serve up targeted adverts to ISP registrants. It's been touted as a great way to provide more relevant ads to users and all the initial talk seemed like PR spin designed to mask any potential privacy issues.

Now at last the privacy issues are getting a good airing!

Personally I'm against my ISP using the data of my surfing habits for advertising purposes. I use my ISP for access to the internet, I do not expect them to share my data on surfing habits with anyone (unless asked to by the authorities...).

Other blogs are asking what the fuss is about this and comparing Phorm to behavioral targeting technologies in use on retail websites. I disagree with this completely as this is going to collect data at the ISP level and share it with any websites which serve adverts through Phorm, this makes it far more pervasive.

An interesting question has to be asked though; how does this differ to Google / Doubleclick? If Google starts to share behavioral search data with Doubleclicks ad serving platform isn't that going to be similarly invasive to users privacy? Potentially; although at least we expect that from Google as an ad revenue based business...

Interestingly, the BBC has just published a story that states that the Foundation for Information Policy Research has claimed that Phorm could well be illegal. They believe Phorm contravenes the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000 (RIPA), which protects users from unlawful interception of information.

This has the potential to get very interesting and could open up other networks and ad serving technologies to scrutiny.

Here's an interesting series of articles and audio/video from Business Week on the subject of widgets. The series is designed to help influence CEO's as to whether it's worth dipping your toes in the waters of widgets (I'm a believer so I'd say yes, go for it).

Building a brand with widgets gives a good overview as to why it may be important to your brand to embrace new technologies and distribution channels such as widgets in order to promote your brand and discusses the viral aspects that can make brands fly online.

Widgets: The future of online ads is a piece singing the praises of widgets and all they stand for. On the flip side Why widgets don't work is a counterpoint playing devils advocate.

A widget mogul in between classes is about the up and coming Facebook app developer Ankur Nagpal who's made six figures at the age of 19 creating apps for Facebook.

When Facebook ads flop introduces us to some of the many unused Facebook applications and gives reasons for their failure. What's good about this piece is the fact that most of the apps are from large companies with mature marketing strategies and yet they've still got it wrong, should be a warning to us all.

The CEO guide to widgets is a podcast talking about the use of widgets for advertising on social networks.

Finally, Making money from widgets is a video interview with VideoEgg CEO Matt Sanchez discussing how to go about monetising the widget world.

Great series of articles, definitely recommend sending this to your CEO (or manager...) if they really don't seem to get it yet!

ComScore have released some data showing that clicks on ads on Google were down 7% in January compared to December and flat year-on-year (actually down 12% qtr-on-qtr).

This is pretty astounding news after the growth Google has seen in ad clicks over the last few years. The thought is that this isn't anything fundamentally to do with Google or any competitor taking market share away, rather analysts seem to think this is a sign of the economic uncertainty we are currently seeing. Times are hard so people click less on ads....

What would be interesting is to see the search volume data alongside this click data to see whether searches have declined or stayed the same.

Needless to say Google's shares have taken a bit of a battering today because of this.

As we've all known for a long time measuring the success of online ad campaigns based on the last-click is not really representative of how engaging your advert or link is to users.

Finally Microsoft have announced a solution that may be the beginning of the end for these old advertising techniques.

Engagement Mapping will allow campaigns to be attributed to every click in the journey of a user, one suspects that means they will attribute percentages of sales to each click to end up with a weighted user journey.

This is good news and great progress but what is needed now is a tracking tool that will allow conversions to be tracked in this way across channels such as affiliates, paid search and banners and attribute sales correctly. Only then will online marketers really understand the ROI each channel is delivering.

But nearly...

Google has come in for the year at £1.3B of ad revenue from the UK alone. Estimates say that the TV channel ITV1 will come in at around £1.32B plus some £100M in sponsorship.

This is still pretty awesome from Google and they should take the lead next year as mobile expands and advertising moves to other platforms (and if they ever get DoubleClick properly into the fold).

More from the Guardian.

Marketing Sherpa has quizzed 420 top digital marketing experts about what they feel are the most effective methods for advertising online and which give the best ROI.

Search engine optimisation came top, this is not surprising as the ROI is incredible. Some changes take such little effort and can return such amazing gains that SEO will always be the top in a survey like this.

Second came behavioural targeting for adverts, slightly more surprising this one as I wasn't aware the technology was quite there yet to get a better ROI than other ways of advertising such as paid search.

Paid search (or PPC) showed quite a drop in confidence in delivering ROI, however marketers said that the biggest increase in budgets would be in the paid search arena.

And the biggest trend in measurement for this year was voted to be the integration of search and email analytics with your standard onsite analytics thus completing the tracking of the customer journey. Integrating offline and online campaign tracking came second here, now that's a holy grail and I don't believe will be truly possible for a year or so longer.

Interesting study; more available here.

A study by ComScore, Tacoda (behavioural ad network) and Starcom has turned up some not wholly unexpected results regarding the profile of users who are frequent ad clickers in the U.S. online population.

It turns out that measuring your banner campaigns performance on click through rates may not actually signify brand engagement to the level that you've been expecting.

There is a small group of consumers out there who account for the vast majority of all banner click throughs. These heavy handed individuals make up just 6% of the online population in the U.S. and yet they account for 50% of all display ad clicks. Worse still, this small group is not fully representative of the public at large, rather it is made up on predominantly users between the ages 25-44 and with a household income of less than $40k. These people spend a lot more time online than the rest of the internet population but at the same time their spending online does not proportionately reflect this heavy usage.

What does this mean for marketers? Well, it could suggest that good click through rates do not correlate strongly with good brand awareness for the ads subject.

Time to diversify! Banners have their place, best used as a response mechanism to attempt to acquire or convert users, and that means best measured for effectiveness using other metrics than click throughs. Conversion rate and acquisition numbers are a far more accurate measure of success. A brand specific measure may prove to be engagement and their are now ways to measure engagement with banners and online adverts. Diversifying your online spend into other mediums is key, making sure you are represented well in search, more viral types of advertising and offline will have a better overall effect on your brand equity.

It's up to web people to educate your marketing departments, many of you will have understood or suspected this for a long time!

The IDC have announced that the market for U.S. internet advertising grew by a massive 27% in 2007.

Interestingly though, while Google grew by 40% year on year in Q4 that was down on their growth a year earlier. That made their market share slip by 0.5%, but they do still own over 23% of the market. Something to do with the coming saturation of search marketing perhaps?

IDC says a merged Microsoft-Yahoo would command 17% of the U.S. online ad market, so still not enough to topple Google from the top spot.

One wonders if the figures for Google include DoubleClick yet??

Google's power and influence in the online world has been demonstrated again today with the news that IncrediMail has had it's Adsense deal with Google stopped abruptly.

IncrediMail received a large amount of its revenue from displaying Adsense adverts to its users. Now this has suddenly stopped and IncrediMail is feeling the ramifications reflected in its share price which dropped 40%.

No real news as to why the deal has ended but the Adsense account that was used has been suspended so it's looking like it could be less than amicable.

This really shows the power Google holds over many websites that are considered to have good revenue streams. Switch off the major source of that revenue and what is left for them to survive on. Perhaps some of these websites find they are making so much off Adsense that they neglect other revenue sources and leave their eggs in the one basket.

The perennial rumour of Microsofts impending acquisition of Yahoo has resurfaced in an article in the NY Post today. I last posted on this in September. See the last line of this NY Post article for the hint supposedly from an insider at MS, apparently the deal is still being debated at Microsoft.

I'm actually less unconvinced than I was about this rumour now. Microsoft are still failing to build the traction around their MSN portal and get significantly less browse traffic than Yahoo and have significantly less advertising real estate available to them. They are also lagging behind in search (although that could change soon). Yahoo would still be a great buy for them, and instantly propel them up the charts in terms of eyeballs and ad clicks.

This just in...

After my post earlier today about the murmurs that Google would get DoubleClick approval I can now inform you that it's happened!

That was quick! The FTC voted 4-1 in favour of the deal and concluded that the deal would not substantially lessen competition.

Well done Google! Look forward to seeing the first development come out of this partnership!

Bloomberg are reporting that Google may well get what it wants and secure the DoubleClick acquisition it's been looking for.

About time too! It's been going on for far too long now, it makes sense to just get it over with, there are far bigger threats to our online privacy than this merger. Every other major player has managed to buy an advertising network this year, so why not Google too?

This is coming too late for some though. Viacom have just signed a deal to move over to Microsoft, away from DoubleClick. Perhaps they would have stayed if Google had the reigns?

Techrunch carried a post the other day highlighting the way publishers have little control over what adverts Google Adsense puts on their websites, using an example of the U.S. baseball/steroid drama. It's always been a bit of an issue for publishers that they could end up carrying advertising that isn't really suitable for their content, and as usual Google have an answer.

Google's just announced the Ad Review Center. This allows publishers to review the ads targeted for your site and lets them ensure they get suitable content related adverts. This should help publishers increase their revenue from Adsense as any adverts that are totally unrelated to their content are more likely to get clicks. Feedback from the publishers will make its way back to the advertisers as well, thus allowing advertisers to target ads better and get hopefully more qualified referrals.

The NY Times technology blog surmises that this could reduce Googles revenue but I highly doubt that as this could encourage wider take up of Adsense by those who've found it poorly targeted in the past.

It's another added value tool from Google that makes Adsense still the most viable ad serving solution for small publishers everywhere.

So, after attending a widgets conference I'm now gripped by all things widgety and waiting to see the latest developments in this area of the web marketplace. I didn't have long to wait...

Clearspring have just announced the launch of a widget ad network called (wait for it) WidgetAd Network. They've been serving adverts as widgets for a while but are now offering a network to widen the distribution possibilities.

It's the next in a line of widget ad announcements. Advertising.com launched WIDGNET as a network to serve widget ads last week.

My concern would be if widgets end up being seen as the new MPU. They have so much more potential than that, I've got a list of applications I want to embed in a widget for my employers benefit, and all will show a decent ROI. Brands need to think differently.

A widget is not just a display point (like a traditional banner)! It is an interaction point, an engagement point, an application container and a way to automagically seed your websites functionality onto other websites quickly and easily. And all this is down to the user to say, yes please I'd like to grab your widget and embed it in my page/site. It's direct response with user permissions thrown in for good measure, you can't get much better than that.

So please, don't just embed a flash banner in a widget and think that you can get away with it. You could seriously damage the potential of widgets and give users the wrong impression.

Keep them smart, keep them engaging, keep them useful and you'll see real ROI and drive the kind of brand loyalty and qualified visitors that we are all looking for from these networks.

Just in case you haven't covered all the bases here's an excellent reference for all you online marketers! It's in the form of a mind map as well, so really useful!

Even if you're not a member...

Beacon is raising privacy concerns left right and centre! It's becoming a bit of a thorn in the side of Facebook and could help increase the backlash that they will face through their continued advertisation (is that a word? Maybe it should be!). There are already reports of some advertisers pulling out of using the system, worries about how Beacon tracks users without them opting in and now it seems they may be receiving data on anyone whether a member of Facebook or not.

PC World is carrying a story about the results of investigations into the Beacon system by some security researchers. They've found that even if you don't have a Facebook account or your account is deactivated you will still be tracked on any Beacon third-party sites and your data sent back to Facebook. Quite what happens to that data we don't know, but one would imagine that it sits on their servers hoping you will sign up so they can identify your cookie and serve ads to you.

It's all getting a bit big brother. Facebook appear to have monetisation as their mantra now, where as they started off being useful they are gradually becoming surplus to requirements!

A report has been released by Anderson Analytics as the results of a survey of the Marketing Executives Networking Group (a 1,700 strong network of marketers at VP level or higher). The survey asked what marketing concepts these executives thought were going to be the top trends and concepts in 2008.

Worryingly, when asked which marketing concepts they felt were going to be most important the second highest answer turned out to be SEO!

Now, I don't know whether marketers are unsure what search engine optimisation is or perhaps this was a particularly 'offline' group of marketers, but SEO is already hugely important and in my eyes if you haven't grasped that yet then it's a bit late. Saying that it will be the second most important concept next year is amazing to me. It's been part of my life for 12 years and is really just part of the routine I go through for any digital project.

Here's the rest of the list:
If you had to ask me what some of the concepts I thought were important for next year were (in digital), I'd say:

• Offline/online translation (getting your offline campaigns translated in a seamless manner onto digital media, something that really isn't being done very well at the moment)
• Viral (campaigns should always be thought of as viral if they touch the web)
• Widgets (cross pollination of marketing campaigns online using widgets)
• Social media (yes, it's huge this year, but next year should see it mature and the launch of OpenSocial will make it more important than ever)
• Banners (controversial one this but we are now at a stage where banners should become more like widgets and really start to become properly engaging, whether this will happen I'm not sure as most agencies who design banners aren't particularly forward thinking)

Underpinning all of those, and every other online marketing concept, should be SEO.

What do you think the key concepts of 2008 will be?